As concerns grow about the new coronavirus, COVID-19, the public needs to trust that they’re getting accurate information about it in order to follow recommendations for slowing the spread. In his 2017 Smithsonian essay about the 1918 flu pandemic, historian John Barry wrote that when the world faces the next pandemic, “the effectiveness of interventions will depend on public compliance, and the public will have to trust what it is being told...The most important lesson from 1918 is to tell the truth. Though that idea is incorporated into every preparedness plan I know of, its actual implementation will depend on the character and leadership of the people in charge when a crisis erupts.”
The spread of COVID-19 motivated me to learn more about the 1918 flu pandemic that resulted in the deaths of millions of people around the world, possibly as many as 100 million. I read Barry’s article “How the Horrific 1918 Flu Spread Across America” and Allison Meier’s 2019 article “The 1918 Parade That Spread Death” to learn more. Both put the impact of that pandemic in perspective by describing how 12,000 people died in Philadelphia in a period of just six weeks in 1918.
How did it spread so quickly in Philadelphia in particular? Here’s the simplified timeline: a few sailors with the virus arrived at the Philadelphia Navy Yard in September of 1918. Within days 600 sailors had it. About ten days later, a patriotic rally and parade to raise money for the war brought 200,000 Philadelphians to mingle in the streets. Within a few days after that gathering, every hospital bed in the city was occupied with people suffering from the flu. Reverend Thomas Brennan recorded what he saw at Holy Cross Cemetery during the pandemic, writing, “Who can describe the scenes that met the eye during these harrowing days? Animus meminisse horret luctuque refugit” (meaning, “my soul shudders at the recollection”).
But why, knowing that the deadly disease was spreading so quickly, did the city allow the rally to go on? In the days just before the parade, why did the head of Philadelphia’s Naval Hospital tell newspapers that, “there is no cause for further alarm. We believe we have it well in hand.”
Barry explains that part of the answer to this puzzle is that Congress passed the Sedition Act in May of 1918, making it a crime with a possible sentence of up to 20 years to “utter, print, write or publish any disloyal, profane, scurrilous, or abusive language about the form of government of the United States...or to urge, incite, or advocate any curtailment of production in this country of any thing or things...necessary or essential to the prosecution of the war.” Government propaganda instructed Americans to report to the Justice Department anyone “who spreads pessimistic stories...cries for peace, or belittles our effort to win the war.”
In this wartime atmosphere, some public health officials tried to keep morale high at the cost of truth. Shortly before the parade, newspapers reported that Philadelphia’s public health director, Wilmer Krusen, said he had “no concern whatever” about his ability to “nip the epidemic in the bud.” He ignored doctors pleas to call off the rally. Doctors tried sending letters to newspapers, but editors wouldn’t print their letters, or stories based on the doctors’ warnings.
Writing about the problem of misinformation from U.S. government and health officials during the 1918 flu pandemic, Barry noted that the public became suspicious of all information: “without leadership, without the truth, trust evaporated.”
Learning about mistakes made in Philadelophia in 1918 makes me ponder the situation we find ourselves in now, with the new coronavirus.
Earlier this week, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the director of the Center for Disease Control’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said of the virus that “it’s not so much of a question of if this will happen in this country any more but a question of when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illness...We expect to see more cases of person-to-person spread among close contacts. ... The goal here is to slow entry of this virus into the United States.”
President Trump reacted to these facts with tweets suggesting there’s a widespread conspiracy among the media and Democrats to weaponize the outbreak to hurt him politically. He tweeted, “low Ratings Fake News MSDNC (Comcast) & @CNN are doing everything possible to make the Caronavirus look as bad as possible, including panicking markets, if possible. Likewise their incompetent Do Nothing Democrat comrades are all talk, no action. USA in great shape!”
Then during a press conference Wednesday about the virus, President Trump claimed, “We're rapidly developing a vaccine...In speaking to the doctors we think this is something that we can develop fairly rapidly." In fact, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that a vaccine won’t be ready for 12 to 18 months, and that’s only if trials taking place now succeed.
During that same press conference, Trump announced that he is charging Vice President Mike Pence with leading the national COVID-19 response, asserting that Pence “has a certain talent for this." However, as a former Governor of Indiana, Pence oversaw a rural HIV outbreak that spread to epidemic proportions when he slow walked approval for needle exchanges. It became a case study in what not to do during a public health emergency. During the press conference, Trump noted that he was also requesting $2.5 billion to respond to the novel coronavirus outbreak.
The scramble to assign unqualified people to carry out the U.S. response to the virus and to fund that response is happening because the Trump administration has hollowed out the government agencies needed for pandemic prevention and response. For instance, the executive branch team charged with coordinating a response to a pandemic was eliminated by the Trump administration in 2018. With regard to funding, there have been significant funding cuts to the Center for Disease Control (CDC) under Trump. In 2018, the CDC’s funding for global disease outbreak prevention was cut by 80 percent. The result was that the CDC canceled its work in 39 of 49 countries – including in China- to prevent infectious-disease threats from becoming epidemics.
In a step sure to further erode public trust, the day after Trump’s press conference the New York Times reported that Mike Pence will be vetting all statements about the COVID-19 situation coming from government health officials and scientists. Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of the nation’s leading experts on infectious diseases who has advised half a dozen presidents on public health crises, was scheduled to go on five talk shows this coming Sunday. According to news reports today, Friday February 28, Dr. Fauci canceled all five appearances.
"“But if such desire drives you to know our disasters,
although my soul shudders to remember and once more shrinks from grief,
I shall begin.”
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